Effect Of Annual Earnings Announcements On Stock Price
Any decision carried out by the management of any organization needs adequate, accurate and precise information, on the basis of that information the management procures their analysis and undertake decision. If decision to be taken involves any financial aspect, this increases the scope and accuracy of the information. Financial decisions require adequate and accurate information; therefore, it is important that the behaviour of individual market is investigated for informed financial decision making, Oguzusy and Guiven (2003).
In this respect many theories were presented. One of them is about the market efficiency which is termed as efficient market hypothesis (EMH). The concept of market efficiency had been anticipated at the beginning of the century by Bachelier (1900) in his dissertation. Fama (1970) classified market efficiency in three categories namely, weak form, semi strong form and strong form of efficiency; weak form of efficiency which defines as one can't earn abnormal return by doing technical analysis of the market or of a particular stock. Technical analysis means predicting future prices by studying historical prices of a particular share or a market. The Second form of efficient market hypothesis (EMH) is semi-strong form of efficiency. This form of market efficiency makes impossible for an investor to earn extra return on security by knowing the publicly available information; this includes company's financial results, any particular event or news which affects the company the share prices adjust rapidly with these new publicly available information therefore excess return can't be earn by trading on that information. The last form of efficient market hypothesis (EMH) is the strong form of efficiency and can be define as share prices reflects all public and private information (insider information) and consequently it is not possible for a stock holder to earn extra return on the basis of these information.
According to efficient market hypothesis (EMH) the stock prices in an efficient market fully reflect their investment value Ajayi, Mehdian Perry (2004). The security pricing process instantaneously impound the available information in an efficient market and it is not possible to beat an efficient market that by using data mining, trading strategy or by any technical analysis to get consistently abnormal returns.
Efficient market hypothesis (EMH) assumed that
(1) All investors have cost-less access to currently available information about the future.
(2) They are good analysts; and
(3) They pay close attention to the market process and adjust their holdings appropriately.
Many models including Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) unit root test, variance ratio test (VR), Ljung Box Q-statistics, and Durbin Watson‘d' statistics have been based on this concept of informational efficiency of capital markets. However the late seventies and the eighties brought in evidences questioning the validity and highlighting various anomalies related to the Stock market efficiency. There are many focused studies that demonstrate the possible trading strategies yielding abnormal rates of return using the historical data and publicly available information ruling out the efficacy of markets. The empirical studies evidencing the inefficiency are broadly related to the following:
(1) The low price-earning (P/E) effect: Researches show that stocks with low price earning (P/E) ratios earned more for investors, which is contradictory to Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH). Fama and French (1995) found that market and size factors in earnings help explain market and size factors in returns.
(2) The small firm and neglected firm effects: Banz (1981), Reinganum (1981) and other researchers show the size or small-firm effect in stock return. Their analysis support the evidence that small firm with low capitalization can earn higher returns than the large firm with large capitalization.
(3) Market over and under reaction: DeBondt and Thaler (1985, 1987) current evidence that is steady with stock prices over reacting to current changes in earnings. They report positive (negative) estimated abnormal stock returns for portfolios that previously generated inferior (superior) stock price and earning performance. This could be construed as the prior period stock price behavior over reacting to earnings developments (Bernard, 1993).
(4) The January effect: The January effect in stock returns was documented by many researchers. Their analysis suggested that January has a highest return as compared to other months. January effect was first discovered by Rozeff and Kinney (1976) for US stock markets. Later other researchers like Gultekin and Gultekin (1983), Chang and Pinegar (1986) documented the same result for other countries stock markets.
(5) The week day effect: This refers to the observation that stocks return are not independent of the day of the week effect. A notable anomaly is the Monday effect in daily stock returns, which suggests that stock returns are significantly lower or negative on Mondays relative to other week days. This ‘Monday effect' has been extensively examined not only in U.S. asset markets but in international markets as well, for example French (1980), Lakonishok and Levi (1982), Mehdian & Perry (2001) and Lakonishok & Smidt (1988).
In week day effect the last trading day that is Friday was characterized with a positive return and the first trading day that is Monday is characterized with a low or negative return. Later this interesting study was also carried out on other countries stock markets and the researchers found out the same result, but still few studies has been done on emerging Asian stock markets.
Bombay Stock Exchange (Bse)
Bombay Stock Exchange is the oldest stock exchange inAsiawith a rich heritage of over 133 years of existence. What is now popularly known as BSE was established as "The Native Share & Stock Brokers' Association" in 1875.
BSE is the first stock exchange in the country which obtained permanent recognition (in 1956) from the Government of India under the Securities Contracts (Regulation) Act (SCRA) 1956. BSE's pivotal and pre-eminent role in the development of the Indian capital market is widely recognized. It migrated from the open out-cry system to an online screen-based order driven trading system in 1995. Earlier an Association Of Persons (AOP), BSE is now a corporatized and demutualised entity incorporated under the provisions of the Companies Act, 1956, pursuant to the BSE (Corporatization and Demutualization) Scheme, 2005 notified by the Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI). With demutualization, BSE has two of world's prominent exchanges, Deutsche Börse and Singapore Exchange, as its strategic partners.
Over the past 133 years, BSE has facilitated the growth of the Indian corporate sector by providing it with cost and time efficient access to resources. There is perhaps no major corporate inIndiawhich has not sourced BSE's services in raising resources from the capital market.
Today, BSE is the world's number 1 exchange in terms of the number of listed companies and the world's 5th in handling of transactions through its electronic trading system. The companies listed on BSE command a total market capitalization of USD Trillion 1.06as of July, 2009.BSE reaches to over 400 cities and town nation-wide and has around 4,937 listed companies, with over 7745 scripts being traded as on 31stJuly 09.
Several Firsts For Bse
At par with the international standards, BSE has in fact been a pioneer in several areas. It has several firsts to its credit even in an intensely competitive environment.
First in India to introduce Equity Derivatives
First in India to launch a Free Float Index
First in India to launch US$ version of BSE SENSEX
First in India to launch Exchange Enabled Internet Trading Platform
First in India to obtain ISO certification for a stock exchange
'BSE On-Line Trading System' (BOLT) has been awarded the globally recognized the Information
Security Management System standard BS7799-2:2002.
First to have an exclusive facility for financial training
First in India in the financial services sector to launch its website in Hindi and Gujarati
Shifted from Open Outcry to Electronic Trading within just 50 days
First bell-ringing ceremony in the history of the Indian capital markets (listing ceremony of Bharti
Televentures Ltd. on February 18, 2002)
SENSEX, first compiled in 1986, was calculated on a "Market Capitalization-Weighted" methodology of 30 component stocks representing large, well-established and financially sound companies across key sectors. The base year of SENSEX was taken as 1978-79. SENSEX today is widely reported in both domestic and international markets through print as well as electronic media. It is scientifically designed and is based on globally accepted construction and review methodology. Since September 1, 2003, SENSEX is being calculated on a free-float market capitalization methodology. The "free-float market capitalization-weighted" methodology is a widely followed index construction methodology on which majority of global equity indices are based; all major index providers like MSCI, FTSE, STOXX, S&P and Dow Jones use the free-float methodology.
The growth of the equity market in India has been phenomenal in the present decade. Right from early nineties, the stock market witnessed heightened activity in terms of various bull and bear runs. In the late nineties, the Indian market witnessed a huge frenzy in the 'TMT' sectors. More recently, real estate caught the fancy of the investors. SENSEX has captured all these happenings in the most judicious manner. One can identify the booms and busts of the Indian equity market through SENSEX. As the oldest index in the country, it provides the time series data over a fairly long period of time (from 1979 onwards). Small wonder, the SENSEX has become one of the most prominent brands in the country.
(Data Source: Yahoo Finance)
1000,July 25, 1990
On July 25, 1990, the Sensex touched the magical four-digit figure for the first time and closed at 1,001 in the wake of a good monsoon and excellent corporate results.
2000,January 15, 1992
On January 15, 1992, the Sensex crossed the 2,000-mark and closed at 2,020 followed by the liberal economic policy initiatives undertaken by the then finance minister and current Prime Minister Dr Manmohan Singh.
3000,February 29, 1992
On February 29, 1992, the Sensex surged past the 3000 mark in the wake of the market-friendly Budget announced by the then Finance Minister, Dr Manmohan Singh.
4000,March 30, 1992
On March 30, 1992, the Sensex crossed the 4,000-mark and closed at 4,091 on the expectations of a liberal export-import policy. It was then that the Harshad Mehta scam hit the markets and Sensex witnessed unabated selling.
5000,October 8, 1999
On October 8, 1999, the Sensex crossed the 5,000-mark as the BJP-led coalition won the majority in the 13th Lok Sabha election.
6000,February 11, 2000
On February 11, 2000, the infotech boom helped the Sensex to cross the 6,000-mark and hit and all time high of 6,006.
7000,June 20, 2005
On June 20, 2005, the news of the settlement between the Ambani brothers boosted investor sentiments and the scrips of RIL, Reliance Energy, Reliance Capital, and IPCLmade huge gains. This helped the Sensex crossed 7,000 points for the first time.
8000,September 8, 2005
On September 8, 2005, the Bombay Stock Exchange's benchmark 30-share index -- the Sensex -- crossed the 8000 level following brisk buying by foreign and domestic funds in early trading.
9000,November 28, 2005
The Sensex on November 28, 2005 crossed the magical figure of 9000 to touch 9000.32 points during mid-session at the Bombay Stock Exchange on the back of frantic buying spree by foreign institutional investors and well supported by local operators as well as retail investors.
10,000,February 6, 2006
The Sensex on February 6, 2006 touched 10,003 points during mid-session. The Sensex finally closed above the 10K-mark on February 7, 2006.
11,000,March 21, 2006
The Sensex on March 21, 2006 crossed the magical figure of 11,000 and touched a life-time peak of 11,001 points during mid-session at the Bombay Stock Exchange for the first time. However, it was on March 27, 2006 that the Sensex first closed at over 11,000 points.
12,000,April 20, 2006
The Sensex on April 20, 2006 crossed the 12,000-mark and closed at a peak of 12,040 points for the first time.
13,000,October 30, 2006
The Sensex on October 30, 2006 crossed the magical figure of 13,000 and closed at 13,024.26 points, up 117.45 points or 0.9%. It took 135 days for the Sensex to move from 12,000 to 13,000 and 123 days to move from 12,500 to 13,000.
14,000,December 5, 2006
The Sensex on December 5, 2006 crossed the 14,000-mark to touch 14,028 points. It took 36 days for the Sensex to move from 13,000 to the 14,000 mark.
15,000,July 6, 2007
The Sensex on July 6, 2007 crossed the magical figure of 15,000 to touch 15,005 points in afternoon trade. It took seven months for the Sensex to move from 14,000 to 15,000 points.
16,000,September 19, 2007
The Sensex scaled yet another milestone during early morning trade on September 19, 2007. Within minutes after trading began, the Sensex crossed 16,000, rising by 450 points from the previous close. The 30-share Bombay Stock Exchange's sensitive index took 53 days to reach 16,000 from 15,000. Nifty also touched a new high at 4659, up 113 points.
The Sensex finally ended with its biggest-ever single day gain of 654 points at 16,323. The NSE Nifty gained 186 points to close at 4,732.
17,000,September 26, 2007
The Sensex scaled yet anotherheight during early morning trade on September 26, 2007. Within minutes after trading began, the Sensex crossed the 17,000-mark . Some profit taking towards the end, saw the index slip into red to 16,887 - down 187 points from the day's high. The Sensex ended with a gain of 22 points at 16,921.
18,000,October 09, 2007
The BSE Sensex crossed the 18,000-mark on October 09, 2007. It took just 8 days to cross 18,000 points from the 17,000 mark. The index zoomed to a new all-time intra-day high of 18,327. It finallygained 789 points to close at an all-time high of 18,280. The market set several new records including the biggest single day gain of 789 points at close, as well as the largest intra-day gains of 993 points in absolute term backed by frenzied buying after the news of the UPA and Left meeting on October 22 put an end to the worries of an impending election.
19,000,October 15, 2007
The Sensex crossed the 19,000-mark backed by revival of funds-based buying in blue chip stocks in metal, capital goods and refinery sectors. The index gained the last 1,000 points in just four trading days. The index touched a fresh all-time intra-day high of 19,096, and finally ended with a smart gain of 640 points at 19,059.The Nifty gained 242 points to close at 5,670.
20,000, October 29, 2007
The Sensex crossed the 20,000 mark on the back of aggressive buying by funds ahead of the US Federal Reserve meeting. The index took only 10 trading days to gain 1,000 points after the index crossed the 19,000-mark on October 15. The major drivers of today's rally were index heavyweights Larsen and Toubro, Reliance Industries, ICICI Bank, HDFC Bank and SBI among others. The 30-share index spurted in the last five minutes of trade to fly-past the crucial level and scaled a new intra-day peak at 20,024.87 points before ending at its fresh closing high of 19,977.67, a gain of 734.50 points. The NSE Nifty rose to a record high 5,922.50 points before ending at 5,905.90, showing a hefty gain of 203.60 points.
Statement Of Ethics And Originality
Due to time constraints the companies' earnings announcement data has been carried out for two years which includes companies' financial years 2007-2008 and 2008-2009.
New sophisticated models for event studies, conventional models were used in this study despite the fact they have less predictive power than the other latest models.
Aims, Objectives And Hypothesis Of The Study
The following are the aims and objectives of the study:
To check whether the semi-strong form of the efficient market hypothesis (EMH) is valid for the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE)-30 Index which is known as Sensex.
To examine the stock market reaction, BSE, to annual earnings announcements.