Tourism is a dependent industry, is highly depending on climate. Climate factors such as sunshine, humidity, temperature, wind are accounted as a success of major tourism destination. Thus, the attractiveness of a destination in highly depends on its climate and environmental bases recourses. The changes in climate will have an effect on the attractiveness and will consequently alter pattern of demand. In this paper will examine the role of climate on tourism by starting on the introduction which explain the generation of tourism demand, the short history of tourism, the relationship between tourism and climate, the vulnerability of climate change on tourism, the limitation and adaptation of tourism on climate as a strategy as well as the impact of climate change on tourism.
Tourism sector is one of a significant contributor to national and local economies and the largest and fastest growing global industries around the world. Tourism encompasses travel for religion, convention and conferences, education, general business travel, health and visiting friends and relatives. Since tourism has been viewed as an important feature of economically, socially and politically but there is still a debate over tourism viewed as an industry or not. Tourism takes place in a different climate raging from warmth a humidity of tropical countries to the cold of the arctic and to the dry heat of the desert. Since climate varies over the year tourists have the opportunities to experience a destination under a different climatic conditions. However, there is different pattern of seasonality in demand. It can be expected that the spatial and temporal pattern of tourism demand will increase even though the climate change have a direct effect such as the increased of temperature and sea-level rise or impact on a landscapes. Even though tourism is characterized as seasonality industry and its great dependence on climatic factor only few studies have engaged in the impact of climate change on tourism.
In definition of tourism, different definitions have been provided by different researcher and the most common used definition of tourism is that of the World Tourism Organization (WTO); "Persons traveling to and staying in places outside their usual environment for not more than one consecutive year for leisure, business and other purposes" (WTO, 2002a, online). This definition was created to harmonize the different nationals' tourism statistics and also is based on the demand side definition. On the supply side its have been created but these are also doubtful. Smith has developed a definition which based on supply sides; "Tourism is the aggregate of all business that directly provide goods or services to facilitate business, pleasure, and leisure activities away from the home environment" (Smith, 1988, 1893)
The demand and supply sides of tourism industry can be recorded accordingly. According to Leiper (1979) described tourism as a system which consisting of a generating regions, a transit zone and a destination region. In all of these regions in the systems, tourists and tourism industry can be found; at the generating regions is where a tourists needs are developed which leads tourists to find information about the destinations and activities and to order or acquire elements of the holidays. In generating regions also there is tourism industry such as tour operators, travel agents and transport providers which assist tourist to get what they want. In the transit zone tourism industry will mainly include transport operator as well as hospitality services. At the destination is where tourists experience is generated through using hospitality services, participates in activities and visits attractions. Attraction can be natural or artificial. Artificial attraction includes of historical, cultural or purpose built for tourism while natural attractions for tourism include climate, landscapes beaches, the seas and lakes and mountain (Mieczokowski 1990). Smith (1988) in his definition portrays tourism as a retail service industry. Nevertheless, tourism's supply sides compose more than just a business. Inherent features of destinations are also supplied to tourist.
The decision of tourist to go to holiday is what makes tourism to take place. The process of decision making about whether to go and where to go on holiday is an important topic of holiday decision making models. The first stage in such model is the individual's motivation to go on holiday (Van Raaij, 1986; Gunn, 1989; Ahmed, 1991; Mansfeld, 1992). Motivation often composed of two factors; first, is push factor that influence the need of tourist to leave the origin region and need to have a holiday and the second, pull factor that generate the need to participate in a particular activities and attract tourist to a particular region (Ryan 2003). The tourist normal environment may be pull factor for instance a stressful urban environment on an extremely wet winter may be an important factors that motivate tourist to take a holiday. The images that tourists have on the destination will strength the pull factor which will be a function of the attributes of the destination. Environmental preferences will have a role to play in this (Fridgen 1984) and of course the natural attraction of the destination.
There will be a rage of combination of possible times to take the holiday in the potential destination region and other possible holiday options that may meet the needs of tourist even though these will be inhibited by availability of income and leisure time. The choice of tourist to a certain destination, time and type of holiday represent the observable demand side of the tourism system. The large branch of tourism literature have been discussed tourism demand even if these studies do not include the environmental factors in the estimation of demand, the mostly focus on economic and demographic factors. Morley (1992) criticizes tourism demand studies for this reason and because they do not consider utility in the decision making process. However he suggests other way of estimating demand based on the expected utility derived from the characteristics of the product. Lancaster (1966) developed the concept that the consumer most important is the characteristics of good than the actual good itself. In tourism, the good is the holiday at a particular destination and in a certain time and this product will have a particular characteristic.
In tourism, the most and important consideration in tourist destination choice behavior is a climate and weather conditions. Climate and weather condition can work as a major constraint and alternative pull factor because most tourist activities take place outdoor and the most important of tourist phenomena is to have close encounter with the outdoor environment. Some researchers claim that climatic conditions are the most important factor that shapes global tourist flows (Burton 1995, Boniface and Cooper 1987, Coltman 1989, Mings 1997). As climate the main factor and influencer of tourist decision making, in this paper will examine the relationship between climate and tourism and how tourism can be affected by the changing of climate.
History of tourism
People have been traveling for different purposes such as business, religion and sporting events as well as pleasure. "Roman roads and unified coin system made travel easier within the Roman empire" (Miezokowski 1990). Rich Roman Athens and other Greek cities were part of an educational tour for young people (Towner 1996)? Richer Roman was able to have second homes in the countryside or coast or both. There were many villas scattered in the hills surrounding Rome during the 1st century BC. This practice distributed to the other parts of the empire (Sharpley 1994). During the middle age, the travel purpose was mainly for religion. Long pilgrimages were undertaken and suffering was an expected part of the journey (Miezokowski 1990).
In the 16th century was the rise of grand tour which was the tour of European for educational purpose. Those on the grand tour would visit Italy as well as the Netherlands, France and German. According to Towner (1985) research result shows that social class, age and education of those on the grand tour changed over the period 1547 and 1985. Additionally, the primary source of information analyzed that there were some changes in the spatial aspect of tour (Towner 1985). Due to these changes and the increased number of middle classes tourists going on a tour, the tour gradually become shorter and developed into a summer tour of one or two months.
During Ancient time, Spas were popular but the popularity was revitalized in Europe during the renaissance (Holloway 1998). During the 16th and 17th century, the water bringing health effects which was the main attraction of the Spas. In 18th century, on the other hand, the Spas were one of the places where the high society met and a trip to take "the cure" was an important part of the social calendar, even if the trip was more for pleasure than health. The customers at the Spas changed over the course of the 18th century; the gentry gave way to merchants and those from the professional classes (Sharpley 1994). A according to Holloway 1998, the Spas popularities life cycles was much longer in rest of Europe than in England.
According to Sharpley (1994) argued that the cost and time of the journey restricted the seaside resorts to the wealthy until 1830. the gentry and aristocracy began to seek exclusiveness elsewhere because of domestic resorts become popular with other social groups (towner 1996). The advance of transportation at the end of 19th century allowed people to travel to abroad to find out the best water and more exclusive resorts.
Even though the new model of transportations have opened up new destinations but there were still considerable barriers for the middle classes such as barriers are currency, language, and finding a suitable destination and accommodation. In the 1984 Thomas Cook began to organize day trips nearby cities, then to interregional tours, from 1855 were trips to Europe's, in 1866 to the United State and 1872 were trips around the world (Mieczokowski, 1990). Cook's tours made the availability of tourism world wide and thus he is often credited as having brought demonstration to tourism and of developing the forerunner of the modern package tour (Sharpely 1994).
The innovation of transportations in 20th century increased the number of places that were accessible for tourist. The invention of cars and the increased number of ownerships made domestic holiday popular (Mieczokowski, 1990).
Climate and tourism
The future of tourism demand has been given a special considerations exposure with different researchers in the literature of tourism. Various methods have been used in predicting the future of tourism demand and compare the explanatory variables used in econometric models gravity methods and time series analysis (Witt and Witt 1995). Crouch (1995) used meta-analysis while Lim (1995) added the qualitative variables to examine the result of 80 studies on international tourism demand. There were no specifications of destinations attractiveness variables or specifications that included in the studies. They concluded that most of the studies about tourism demand focus on economic factors in estimating the demand.
Demand system provides the opportunity to observe the pattern of tourist flow to different destinations countries. For instance, Lyssiotou (2000) used the almost ideal demand system structure to study British demand for long-haul tourism using tourism expenditure data. Lanza et al (2003) used the same method to examine the impact of specialization in tourism. All of these studies in the demand functions none of the used or included natural resources characteristics in their studies.
Morkey (1992) suggests that different level destination have different utility that will be achieved depending on the attribute of the destinations. Moreover the utility will depend on the time spent on the destinations. He criticize that the majority of tourism studies on the reason that they do not consider the utility and also they are lacking the basis theory in the decision-making theory. He suggested that landscape and climate attribute should be involved in the product characteristic sets. Most tourism studied have been neglected the characteristics of tourism product (Papatheodorou 2001). However, in order to predict a change in tourist flows whether is spatially or temporally, he claims that the more appropriate the approach in that includes the destinations characteristics. The study of Papatheodorou (2001) also did not include the climate and landscape attributes in their characteristics sets. In the 1960s the travel costs methods was originally introduced to estimate the recreational demand. The ideas of the costs method is that, the cost that people take for travelling to a site reflect their willingness to pay for the recreation at the site. As the cost increased all the trips cost that made to particular destinations allows the construction of a demand curve which can be used to calculate the site value. The travel cost modal can be divided into two groups that is the single sites and multiple sites models. The single site model is limited to calculate the total value of specific destinations apart from the estimation demand method. However, the multiple models which consist of hedonic travel cost model and pooled travel model can be used to value the characteristics of the sites. Freeman (1993) claimed that the absence of specific qualities and price in the travel cost model makes it impossible to examine of changes in destination characteristics at more than one sites. Climate change will not have an impact on single destinations, rendering the travel cost method unsuitable for a complete analysis of the effects on the patterns of demand.
Climate and tourism
Climate has been viewed as a natural resource base for tourism regions which is the main impetus for attracting visitors. According to Hibbs (1966) in the concept of tourism climate recognized that, a climatically controlled resource along with weather at various times and locations may be categorized to favorable to unfavorable spectrum. Therefore, climate is a resource which is used by tourism. It can be treated as an economic asset for tourism which is capable of being measured and assessed. But the problem is that, what exactly are the criteria of suitable, acceptable, or ideal conditions for tourism to visit.
Climate illustrates the weather conditions that can be expected at a certain time and place and is calculated from the average of thirty year weather data. While weather is the current state of the atmosphere that is actually experienced, the weather is typically illustrated in terms of humidity levels and frequency of precipitation temperature, wind, cloud cover and other weather features (Perry and Thompson 1997). Weather has a direct impact on physiological functioning of humans. The core body temperature must be maintained to avoid discomforts and in extreme cases life threatening illness. High temperature leads to high body temperature if the relative humidity is so high that sweat cannot evaporate. Apart from air temperature, other factors that raise body temperature are activities; thus strenuous activities will increase the likelihood of heat stress than passive activities carried out in the same weather conditions.
In defining the types of climate data, resources and manner in which are presented will depend on the intended use of the information. A tourist planner, tour operator and the individual tourist can use the information accordingly. Tourist need to know when and where conditions will be optimal, acceptable, tolerable or unacceptable before decision-making. Climate information needs to be presented in a form that relates to the response of an individual or business to weather or climate that is events (or real conditions) rather than average. It is generally accepted that statistical weather data or even secondary climatic variables are not always reliable indicators of the significance of atmospheric conditions because tourists always respond to the integrated effects of atmospheric environments. The information presented should give an impression of likelihood of the occurrence of the climate or weather conditions. Also we should base on standard meteorological or climate station such as valleys, hills, peaks, coasts or beaches.
The pattern of tourism and climate studies
Hamilton and lau argued that climate and weather play an important roles on the decision making process of a destination choice and the right time for a holiday or the choice of daily recreation activities whilst on holiday. Tourist destination choice for last minutes holidays and short breaks are affected by the expected weather or climate rather than the actual weather. The actual weather is an important factor in the decision making for daily recreation choice. The relationship between the atmospheric environment and outdoor activities can be taken to be a function of attributes of onsite climatic condition. The importance of climate in tourism has been categorized by de Freitas (2003) first, into aesthetic attribute which consist the weather factors such as visibility, sunshine or cloud associated with the prevailing synoptic condition (such as a nice, clear, sun day) day length and visibility; second, physical attribute which involve the specific meteorological elements such as rain, snow, high wing that directly or indirectly affect participant satisfaction other than in a thermal sense. And the third is thermal attribute of climate that involves the physical factor which influencing the body's thermal sate which must include both the attribute of those exposed and functional attributes of the environment as well as the complete range of atmospheric variables. These include air temperature, wind, humidity, solar and long-wave radiation and nature of the physical surroundings and for the body, metabolic rate, posture and clothing. However, there is growing proof that climate has important neurological and psychological effects (Parker 2001) which have influence on the choice of holiday destination. There are two broad types of studies in the literature tourism where the importance of climate and weather have been examined into attitudinal studies and behavioral studies.
There are two types of attitudinal studies the one that examine the subjective rating of climate compare to the index weather data ratings and those that examine the importance of climate in the image and the attractiveness of particular destination. Thermal comfort index have been developed to capture the complexity of the thermal aspects of climate which is argued to compose temperature, radiation, humidity and wind. Special modifications of such indexes have been used by different researchers such as Amelung and Viner to access the appropriateness of certain climate for tourism. However, according to de Freitas (2003) the basis of these indexes is subjective and arbitrary. De Freitas conducted a research in Queensland Australia where he find out that the relationship between HEBIDEX a body atmosphere energy budget index and the subjective rating of weather is highly related by the beach users. By using the thermal comfort index, predicted mean vote, Thorson et al (2004) finds a positive relationship between thermal comfort and urban park use for recreational activities in Goteborg, Sweden. Nevertheless, according to the index, the researchers find out that there is an inconsistence in the subjective rating of the weather and the rating of the weather. According to the calculated index, the majority of those surveyed said that the weather was suitable when it was warm and hot.
Regardless of the popularity of destination image studies in the tourism literature, only one of the 142 papers about destination image that reviewed by Pike (2002) were specifically deals with weather. This was the study of Lohman and Kaim (1999) who wrote about the lack of experimental evidence on the significance of weather or climate on detonation choice decision-making. According to these researches which conducted in German citizens, weather bio-climate and landscape was found as the most important aspect even before price considerations. Additionally, although weather is an important factor, destination are also chosen regardless of the possible bad climate. According to the study of Hu and Ritchie (1993) find out that climate and natural beauty are common significance in defining the attractiveness of the destinations. In the own study which examine the image of different destinations find out that climate is the second most important feature for the group of tourist on a recreational holiday. In a survey of German tourists, climate and access to the sea rated as the most important characteristics of destinations (Hamilton and Lau, forthcoming).
In the behavioral studies which based on the particular sites in term of weather data explain that, the demand for recreational activities increased on the sunniest days and days that are exceptionally warm especially when the condition occurs in the end of spring or early of summer. The studies conducted by Dwyer (1988) which focused on urban forest in Chicago and USA by using percentage rain and snow depth noon temperature and the percentage sunshine shows that when high temperature is decreases the demand but when is moderate temperature increases demand. In additionally, the studies of Bandenburg and Arnberger (2001) which rely on the daily use of Danube Flood plains National Parks in Austria used Physiological Equivalent Temperature (PET), the occurrence of precipitation and cloud cover to estimate the number of visitor per day in total and grouped visitors into four groups as follow cyclists, hikers, joggers and dog walkers. The PET value is very important in determining the use levels, particularly for cyclists and hikers.
Other studies explain the relationship between tourism demand and weather. For instance the survey conducted by Agnew and Palutikof (2001) which focus on model domestic tourism and international inbound and outbound tourism which used the time series of UK tourism and weather data. The result shows that there is strongest indicator of domestic demand in temperature, while the demand for traveling to overseas increase during wetter weather. Also the result of different researches shows that demand increases as a snow amount increases, trip demand is more approachable to change in price.
Other studies used climate data to examine the role of predictable weather in destination choice and thus demand. Bigano et al (2006) argued that people from hotter places tend to have sharper preferences. That is people from hotter place will prefer to go to the place where a moderate temperature than people from cold places. According to the Pooled Travel Cost Model (PTCM) studies shows that the demand of tourism is increased when the temperature is between 31C and 24C.
The engagement of people in tourism activities for personal satisfaction or pleasure is voluntary proceeding from peoples own choice. The participant willing on participating on tourism activity if only they only they perceived set the climate conditions to be suitable. The voluntary and discretionary nature of tourism means that participation will decrease as discomfort and dissatisfaction. However, the satisfaction is and essential factor in tourism can affect participation which takes as a measure of tourism demand for the climatic resource the so called demand factor (Freitas 2003).
The climate or weather conditions that tourist reaction may affect decision making in different way on one hand the condition that anticipated by tourist such as climate forecasts and or travel brochures and advertising while on the other hand may affect on-site weather.
The relationship between climate, weather and tourism
For a long time several researchers have been studied the relationship between tourism and climate. Climatologists studied the climatic thresholds that define season the length of tourism activities, while biometeorology examined how the climatic variables affected the physical comfort of tourists and introducing rating system that evaluate and compare the climates of tourism destinations. Different types of tourism have different suitability of climate condition as does the satisfaction of an individual tourist depending on their origin country, age, sex and other factors. Some forms of tourisms require specific climatic conditions such as winter sports, beach tourism or health-wellness tourism. The suitability of climatic conditions for tourism can differ at a macro scale from one destination to another depending to altitudes or even at a small scale under the influence of human development or tourism infrastructure. Weather and climate have been used more recently as a factor for a travel motivation holiday satisfaction for tourist and destination choice as well as the climate and weather information have used by tourism operations and tourism stakeholders such as investors, tourists, government etc,
The significance of weather and climate forecasts for the tourism sector
In many countries of the world, weather can be forecasted for a week with good reliability and it is expected that to be similar for ten days over the 10-15 years. Weather forecasts are improving at a local scale although some huge phenomena can not be predicted with enough time fore effective response to the risk. The weather forecast improvement and the early development warning system are very important to the sector. Improvement in weather forecast are important to tourist and tour operators in the planning such as travel and activities planning, irrigations, maintenance and staff scheduling etc. weather forecasting improvement is also important because it helps to determine the tourist experience and tourism demand.
The prediction of climate covered one month period to several years but usually is for three month periods. Meteorologist combined global forecasting methods and statistics of the global and regional phenomena analysis that affecting regional and local climate and weather to determine the probability for a given season. Even though there are a number of potential benefits uses in tourism sector that are anticipated to increase as seasonal prediction improved such as fuel supply procurement, inventory management, marketing, insurance premiums or cruise line destinations planning but the uses of seasonal prediction has been limited in the tourism sector thus far.
The only reason that integrated weather and climate information into decision making is the uncertainty which associated with the forecasts or prediction. Climate prediction cannot avoid the uncertainty but uncertainty is very different from no information. Prediction help user to understand and to learn how to handle the uncertainty and to be fully aware of the risks and benefits when making decisions regarding the climate-sensitivity of climate activity. The challenge is for tourism sector to work together to find a possible decisions and policies that are amenable to such an approach and to seize upon them.
The cooperation between tourism stakeholders and meteorological institution has taken multiple forms from new forecasts for tourism destinations improved media training and cooperation to deliver forecast related to tourism specifically for destination, tour operator, meteorological services and other stakeholders.
Climate change and tourism
According to climate scientists observed that climate have been changing over the 20th century. There is a compromise among climate scientists about the change occurring now is different with the previous changes and it is influenced by human activity. The latest scientific confirmation about climate change and predictions of climate change for future decade were gathered IPCC from different general circulations models. According to IPCC references show that from 11th to 20th century, the 1990s was the warmest decade while 1998 was the warmest year since the recorded history. The 21st century temperature increased from 1.4C to 5.8C is expected. The temperature rate of 21st century is expected to increase in a rate higher than that of the 20th century and precipitation patterns are predicted to change. Apart from that evidence of climate change, others can be seen in the contraction of the glaciers, the melting of permafrost, the extension of growing seasons and in the shift of the range of animal and plant species. The northern hemisphere at a mind to high latitudes precipitation is forecast to increase in winter while at low latitudes of both hemisphere there will be increases and decreases depending on the regions.
The main causes of climate change are the changes of human activities since the industrials revolution. The most impact of these is the uses of fossil fuel as an energy source. The result of using fossil fuel is the production of the gases carbon dioxide nitrous oxide and methane. These gases belong to clusters of gases found in the atmosphere known as greenhouse gases (GHG) which imitate infrared radiation in all directions which generate an effect known as greenhouse effect while more energy enters the earth's atmosphere than leaves the atmosphere. The greenhouse effect enhanced and the consequently the atmosphere warm as the concentration of these gases increases in the atmosphere.
The uses of fossil fuel also results in the emission of aerosols as well as emission of chlorofluorocarbons (CFC) which destroy the ozone layer adding to the radioactive forcing. Not only emissions are the anthropogenic source of disturbance to climate change but also the changes in land use which both influence the greenhouse effect. Urbanization and agriculture change the physical and biological properties of the earth's surface.
Climate change affects ecosystem particularly coral reefs, glaciers, atolls, tropical forests, mangrove, polar and alpine ecosystem and prairie wetlands. It is predicted that many species will be vanished resulting to decrease in biodiversity. There will be also the major impacts of human systems such as change in agricultural crop yields, the availability of water resources, the coastal zone effects of flooding on settlements, changes in energy requirements and the impact on human health.
Tourism industry is affected by climate change through two means that is directly through the changed of climate and indirectly through the environmental changes brought by climate change. These impacts will occur at the origin region and at the destination regions.
The vulnerability of tourism to climate change
Vulnerability refers to the degree to which the system is suspected to be affected, disrupted or displaced by an external force. The consequence of climate change for tourism and recreation will depend on the distribution and importance tourism and climate change characteristics. Other things been equal, the location that appears to be in a great risk is the one whose economic are highly depend in tourism. Tourism has been claimed as a global industry even though there are some places that is untouched by tourism. Tourism is not equally distributed and is highly located in a specific areas especially cities, maintained and coasts. Cities in the major tourism attraction while mountain and coast sites are popular specialize in catering to tourists. Since these sites have simple economic structure and the seasonality business and these areas have high possibility of experiencing many physical consequence of climate change, they may be in a great risk. Tourism and recreation depends highly in energy environment particularly in mountains and coasts and is in these areas which appear to be more vulnerable to climate change through modification in hydrological cycle especially the changes of water levels, stream flow and the size and timing of snowfall.
Wall (1992,1993) claim that, domestic and international tourism will experience different vulnerability, that is domestic tourism destinations are likely to more stable than in international destinations because its take place in relatively short period of time ant time limitation place constraints on the destination choice of tourists. However, the international tourism destinations are more likely to be at risk than those depending on a local market. In additional, the destination that depend primary on their natural resources as the main tourist attraction such as mountains, coasts are likely to be at risk than those rely on historical and cultural attractions. In the developed countries the destinations that have international reputation which focus on their regional market for a large proportions of visitors ant it appears to be remote locations, distant from urban market are likely to be more at vulnerable.
One of the tourist destinations characteristic is seasonality. Not only there are regular activities associated with season such as skiing but there are differences in activities in the destination that are lacking a marked seasonal climate. This is because of the result of differences of seasonal demand of visitations in area of supply. Smith (1990) has pointed out those tourists vacations travel decisions are influenced by the conditions at home and potential holiday destination and has explained that, with the economic factors removed, the existence of good statistic between the annual data of tourists travel by air from Britain to Portugal and rainfall in the precious summer in Britain. He suggested that in a warmer country many winter vacation currently taken in Florida Mexico by residents of the colder parts of the USA and Canada may become less compelling under the relatively larger increment of winter warming projected for these latitudes.
The length of season is very important for private operators of tourist facilities. The invested of capital in this area is very complicated because for many destination and activities in operation period is limited and the profit must be made in short period of time. Anything that affects the length of operating season which may be climatic factor or the length and timing of holidays is likely to have an impact on the possibility of tourism business. It also be remembered that the climate and weather parameter which influence tourism vary from activity to activity. Therefore, it is very important to know the weather precipitation falls since some activities are much more sensitive to meteorological conditions than others. Crowe, Mckay and Baker (1998) claimed that some information on the minimum climatic condition is necessary for particular activities to take place and (Paul 1972) suggested that the research concerning of participants responses in different activities to change in weather is needed.
The other direct effect of climate on tourism which has been considered as impinges on recreations in less direct fashion. For instance the abundance of snow may make skiing conditions very good but the journey to the slope impossible. For a long time, climate change may influence the distribution of different types of vegetation, wildlife and fish species on which some forms of tourism depend on.
Many forms of tourism take place on or near seashore and the presence of water enhance many forms of tourism even though water contacts are not required. The changes of climate in small and large scale have consequences on the water levels and discharge and influence the value and amenity of property. Hare (1985) point out that at the low water point of the mid-sixties in the great lakes, the water retreated hundred of meter from some of beaches and shores of Lake Huron.
Limitations and adaptations
According to task force on climate adaptation (1993) suggested the strategy to respond on global climate change is to consider the limitation and adaptation. Limitation have been define as attempt to curtails the generation of greenhouse gases and thereby to reduce the size and speed of climate change, while adaptation is to accepts that climate change is likely to occur and to find or identify steps in which may be taken to avoid its adverse implication and to take an advantage of opportunities. Limitation and adaptation can occur at the same time and cannot be regarded as an alternative strategy because they are interrelated. Furthermore, adaptation has become more recognized as a necessary strategy because many believed that climate is already changing and it will be more important to adapt to these changes even though limitations are placed upon the greenhouse gases production. Therefore, tourism can be vulnerable and will have to adopt to both climate changing and to the limitation strategies that are imposed to reduce the greenhouse gases
Most forms of tourism and recreation involves the travel between tourist's origin sites and destinations sites. People mostly like to be comfortable whether they are at home or away, the energy consumption between the origins and destination is considered as the most important contribution of tourism rising greenhouse gas concentrations. On-site recreational activities are usually viewed as the minor net contributor of greenhouse gases production because of the temporary movement of people from temperature to tropical latitudes which has local consequences for energy and water consumption. However, the increase of tourism demand may be cause negative consequences to the local especially when tourist tend to make much larger demands that the local residents.
The definitions of trips for discretionary activities for most tourists in various forms of tourism are not discretionary for the businesses and communities which supply to tourists and depend on their expenditure. The policies designed to curb travel may have consequence on destination areas. Knapper, Gertler and Wall (1981) argued that the economies of tourist destinations are affected by short supply of gasoline. Thus many destinations decided to save their gasoline for recreation. In short, tourism and recreations are not viewed as a major generator of greenhouse gas except in the travel phase which initiatives taken to curb travel even though the pricing or rationing of gasoline may have substantial consequences for destinations areas.
According to task force on climate adaptation (1993), adaptation involves the modification of social and economic activities in order to enhance their possibility or opportunities and to reduce the vulnerability. Climate adaptation is a general term examines the various phenomena of human adaptation to climate change and temperature. Such adaptation take place when people movie from a different climate regions in times of seasonal climatic changes and result to repeated exposure to extreme temperature. Adaptation practical way of maintaining the current unpredictable of climate and extreme events as well as adjusting to long-term climate change to climate in the matter of fact that both human and natural system are already adjusted to unknown degree to much of variability in current climates. With respected to human system having research on natural hazard are likely to occur in a situation that the operating system are most in a intermediate risk. Where risk are small or uncommon, usually are modification are required compared to high risk area. The investments to reduce risk are likely to be most in a necessary and productive intermediary situation. It follows that, it is changes in the size and regularity of extreme events through which the consequences of climate change will most likely be imposed.
According to wall (2007) claimed that there are three main groups which are likely to be considered with the respect to the adaptation of climate change. Firstly, the group of participants, tourism and recreation participation result from choices even though choice are not unconstrained a great deal of flexibility involved. Tourists have considerable choice on what and where to participate and what activities to participate. Since tourism product is an experience, tourist may be able to replace the activities and locations without a great deal of loss in their recreation quality. Secondly, business group, since the participant of tourism and recreation are not flexible much of recreational provision may be in a problem because they are in fixed location with sunk of capital that cannot readily be liquidated or re-investment. If the quality of the recreational; resources and associated experience is degraded or the operating system in running below the economic viability then there may be considerable economic dislocation for recreational business and the communities on which they depends on. Thirdly institutional, the flexibility of institution is the major factor that influences the adaptation of tourism on climate change whose decision impinges on tourism. The timing of holiday and data of opening and closing the sites of tourism attraction need to be modified in new climatic circumstances. However, the increased of economic benefit will cause the expenses of environmental degradation as a destination host more visitors for a long period of time. Therefore it is suggested that tourist may be able to adapt quite well to climate change since they are flexible but tourism operators facing many challenges because of their immobility and relying on short operating seasons to generate economic returns.
The impact of climate change on tourism
Tourism industry has close connection with the environment and climate which is considered to be one of the economic sectors with highly climatic sensitive similar to other sectors such as agriculture, insurance, energy, and transportation. The impacts of climate change are becoming an evident at destinations around the world and are one of the influencing factors of decision-making in tourism sector. According to UNWTO, UNEO, WMO 2008 conference which held in discussed four broad categories of climate change impacts that will affect tourism destination, their competitiveness and sustainability. Each one will be examined as follows
Direct climatic impact
As climate is very important resource of tourism, it has been used to determine the suitability of a destination and for a wide rage of tourism activities and is the main determinant of global seasonality in tourism demand and has an important influence on operating cost such as heating-cooling, snowmaking, irritation, food and water supply and insurance costs. Therefore the changes in climate as tourism characterized as seasonality industry could have significant implication of competitive relationship between destinations. Studies indicate that there are possible changes of attractive climate condition for tourism in higher latitudes and altitudes.
IPCC (2007) concluded that the increases in frequency of magnitude of certain weather and climate extremes (example heat, waves, droughts, floods, tropical cyclones) are likely as a result of projected climate change. Such change will affect tourism industry through the increased of infrastructure damage, additional emergency preparedness requirements, higher operating expenses (eg insurance, backup water and power systems and evacuations) and business interruptions.
Indirect environment change impacts
Since tourism industry depend mostly in environment then environmental conditions have become serious and virtual resources for tourism, a wide rage of climate will lead to environmental change which will cause profound effect on tourism at the local and regional destination level. Changes such as reduced of landscape aesthetic, increased of natural hazards, loss of biodiversity, changes in availability of water, coastal erosion and inundation, the increasing incidence of vector-borne diseases and damage to infrastructure, all of these affect tourism in different way and degree. However, the indirect impact on environment which caused by climate change are likely to be largely negative. Climate change will affect the natural and cultural resources which are the main resources of tourism.
Impact of the mitigation policies on tourist mobility
According to Simpson et al (2008a), Gossling at el (2008b) argued that the national and international mitigation that seek to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions may have impact on tourist flows. This led to an increase of cost in transportation and may promote environmental attitudes that lead tourists to change their travel patterns. International destination can be affected mostly.
Indirect societal change impacts
Climate change is considered to cause a risk of future economic growth and political stability of some nations. This may be through dropping of global GDP due to climate change which will lead to reduction of discretionary income available to consumers for tourism growth. Climate change is also been considered as a national and international problem that will gradually intensify, particularly under greater warming scenarios. The numbers of regions especially developing nations where tourism is highly to local-national economies have invented climate change associated security risks. Long-haul tourists are disinclined to political instability and social unrest and negative tourism impact for climate change security hotspots many of which are believed to be in developing countries are evident(Hall et al 2004.
Tourism vulnerability hotspots
The integrated impact of climate change will have consequences in tourism business and destination and these impacts will vary substantially by market segment and geographical; region. The complications of climate change for tourism business or destinations will also partially depend on the impacts on its competitors.
Review studies of the impact of climate change on tourism
The climate change studies have been classified as a qualitative and quantitative. Each one will be examined in individually as follow;
Qualitative studies focus on expert's opinion on the possible impact on climate change. Different researchers for instance Perry (2000) has discussed the impact that climate change will have on tourism at the Mediterranean. The main impact caused by an increase in temperature will be a "doughnut" shaped pattern of demand that is in the peak season there will be more tourist than in the summer season. Also he expected that during winter holiday there will be an increase as demand especially from the aged generations. There will be indirect effect which will reduce demand and increase the need for planning restriction. According to Gable (1997)in his survey of Caribbean coastal area, he find out that in the coastal area will also experience a drop of demand though beach loss. Viner and Agnew (1999) explain the current market situation and climate for the most popular destination of the British. Currently warm resorts destinations are expected to become less attractive as temperature and humidity increase. Since summer weather becomes more favorable and reliable in temperate countries, tourism demand is expected to increase. All of these studies focus on the amalgamation of existing work on physical impacts of climate change or on the expert opinion of the authors which have not direct link with the demand or supply of tourism. However the studies emphasize the various impacts that climate change will have. An increase in summer precipitation will reduce the willingness of investors to invest in tourism industry and to make new investment in tourism infrastructure and facilities (Krapp 1997).
Impact on the supply of tourism services
Predicting changes in the supply of tourism services have been applied in the different activities for instance Breiling and Charamza (1999). In their study result, they find out that the changes of two degree in temperature on winter seasonal will reduce ski season length and the usability of ski facilities. Warming will have strong impact on low altitude destinations which the authors expect the first destinations will disappear and the remaining destinations will become more expensive. The general decline in natural skiing condition, although this will have fewer problems at high altitude destinations.
The impact on the climatic attractiveness
Tourism data index have been used to examine the climatic attractiveness of the destination and how climate change affect the attractiveness of a certain tourist destinations. Scott and McBoyle (2001) used the data index to approach the impact of climate change on the city tourism in several cities in North America. Cities were ranked according to their climatic appropriateness for tourism and how relate to tourist accommodation expenditure. Then these rankings were recalculated by using scenarios data of the lower and middle bounds of climate change for 2050s and 2080s. The result shows that here was improvement of cities attractiveness in both slices. Improvement in spring was the largest of the all seasons. Amelung and Viner (in press) also use tourist indices to analyze the favorable for tourism in Europe. The tourism destination attractiveness depends on temperature, humidity, wind and precipitation in a very non-linear way. The climate change may change tourist attitudes towards higher altitudes and latitudes and also there will be changes of attractiveness from summer to spring and autumn in some destination while in other destinations there will be a changes from spring and autumn to winter.
The impact on demand
The studies examine the effect of climate change on tourism activities and the recreation demand are one the one which examine the demand of various recreation activities on the day of temperature and precipitation by Loomis and Crespr (1999). They predict that there will be a reduction in the skiing activities and the increases in day spent on playing golf at the beach and reservoirs. The demand for recreational activities will increase during temperature season and people will be more willing to spend on recreational and tourism activities than in other things. Temperature is a positive determinant of demand for visitors (Richardson and Loomis 2004).
Furthermore, some studies examine the national demand for domestic and international tourism. Agnew and Polutikof (2001) predicted that as summer temperature increased caused the increase of domestic tourism demand in UK, while in the study of Maddison (2001) find out that the number of visits and consumers surplus per year will increase as the temperature increases although only until the optimal maximum daily temperature. Also he added that for climate change scenario for temperature increases for 2C in 2030s and reduction in precipitation of 5%in summer lead to a reduction of travel demand, but in other seasons there will be an increase of the number of trips and consumer surplus. Different countries have different climate conditions and in different time there will be climatic attractiveness in a certain destination so in the different place the demand for recreation activities will increase in a temperature season and will decrease in a precipitation seasons.
The impact on global tourism flows
The climate is the main factor that motivate tourist from their home countries to take a holiday to somewhere with a preferred climate. This may be to escape the heat of summer months or to get away from cold and wet winter. Climate change may reduce or increase the needs to go elsewhere to spend time in a suitable climate. Hamilliton et al (2005 a,b) and Bigano et al (2007) in the their research used climate as a factor in all countries to estimate demand to travel as well as the demand for a particular destination.
In the climate index of annual temperature, there are two quadratic relationships. First in the cool destinations has become more attractiveness as they get warmer while in warm destinations become less attractive. Secondly, cool countries as the get warm they generate less international tourists and warm countries generate more.
Contribution of tourism to climate change
Tourism industry is the one of contributors of the climate change. According to WTO-UNEP-WMO (2008) claim that the emission of greenhouse gas from tourism is mainly from transport accommodation and facilities. The emission from tourism accounted about 5% of global carbon dioxide emissions. In 2005 tourism expected to contribute in global warming about 5% and 14% to the overall warming caused by human emission of greenhouse gases.
For 5%of global carbon dioxide emission contributed by tourism 75% are generated from transportation. According to UNWTO (2008), air transport alone accounting about 54% and 75% while trips by coach and rail account for 34% of all trips but for only 13% of all carbon dioxide emission excluding accommodation.
Tourism contribute to climate change may have growing consideration by 2035. this is because tourism is a growing industry and is even expected to grow by 179% which will lead to more contribution to global warming including all greenhouse gases will even be larger with an expected of increase in irradiative forcing up to 188%, most of this caused by aviation. This will be due to growing rate of tourist arrivals and the increased of tourists rights. The development of emission from tourism and their contribution of global warming are therefore in stark contrast to the international community's climate change mitigation goals for the coming decades.